A View from The Prairie, 2025

January 2025

Leadership

Many people strive to be leaders, but lack leadership. Often, they think that the most important thing is to be loud and speaking often, even making up stuff. But leadership is first and foremost about moral authority - when others trust someone to make the next decision fairly and in a way that benefits the most people. Leadership involves vision, communication, and structuring things so that others can do more.

Once Rich - Staying Poor?

The ruins of Chaco Canyon are impressive. They show that in the 1100's, a vibrant and wealthy civilization flourished in northwest New Mexico centered on that canyon. Today it is a ruin. The only people living there are park employees. Mississippi was once the richest state in the Union. Today it isn't. Place after place has been wealthy and slid into a decline that can last hundreds of years.

World Champion or DEI Hire?

In early February, the basketball world was shocked by the Luka Doncic trade. Many wondered if the manager really knows how to evaluate talent. When looking at someone, do we see only the surface and call that person a "DEI hire" or go beyond the surface and recognize a "Tiger Woods", a world champion? History is full of cases where people did not look beyond the surface and let champions walk to their competitors.

Greatness or Just Average

A small business person wanted a new video ad. They were able to use AI to generate such a video within a short time. For small business, AI is a great way to generate ad copy. Many writers view writing ad copy as one of the worst jobs they could have and using AI instead frees them from that. But AI generates average marketing, not great marketing. Great marketing tells a story, an irresistible story.

Move Fast and Kill People

When we stagger out of bed and get ready for work, we often follow a routine. We have a "process" we use over and over again. One of the most powerful parts of modern management is how we develop and rely upon processes to perform functions over and over again. While some people attempt to circumvent such processes and processes do need to be rethought on a regular basis, destroying a process can destroy the organization. When people's lives are at stake, following a well thought out process can be essential to survival. Back in 2011, JC Penney was struggling and the board brought in a new CEO.

Turn Problems Around

Does singing a country song backwards bring back your pickup and dog? While humorous to think that it might, this saying is about looking at problems from the other end. Many times, we get caught up in one way of thinking and turning the problem around is a great way to see our problem in a new light. When we look at the potential failures of investments, we might be able to see things we missed when full of enthusiasm.

The Meritocracy Myth

In 1896, an African American born as a slave received a Master of Science degree from Iowa State University. He went on to win patents and was highly influential in improving farming and the use of peanuts. People associate him with inventing over 300 products. This shows that training and ability are far more important than how a person starts. Meritocracy claims that background and expensive schooling should count more. However, they are no guarantee for compassion, morality, or business ethics. For true creativity, we need people thinking outside the meritocracy box. Modern training has shown that nearly anyone can be trained to properly do almost any job.

Creative Destruction

Joann Stores are closing. Many crafters and people who work with fabric are sad. The debt levels were too high to be serviced and there was no way to shrink to greatness. Is this part of the natural cycles of capitalism or is it a sign of something toxic? Creative destruction is an accepted aspect of Capitalism. Creative destruction works only when the community has resiliency.

Welcome to the Jungle

Axl Rose sang, "Welcome to the Jungle" with the line "You're in the jungle, baby. You're going to die." The jungle is not civilized. While many romanticize the concept of living in nature, the jungle is not a safe place. What to eat and if you would be alive to eat are always in question. The "supply chain" for meals is highly variable. Today, shock after shock is hitting business supply chains. Managing the supply chain requires visibility, flexibility, and resilience. Managers need to handle natural disasters, political upheaval, and cyber-attacks.

Mental Pollution

When the "dime novel" burst on the scene, critics roundly condemned the writing, the moral and cultural ambiguities, and bemoaned how it was corrupting the minds of our youth. But have books really corrupted youth? Mental pollution takes several forms: learning false information, taking in too much information, and propaganda taking over all channels. We need to learn how to handle the mental polution we swim in.

Sea of Propaganda

We swim in an ocean of propaganda and advertising. AI is making it worse. Nearly anyone can post their beliefs online for all to see. With AI faking pictures, videos, or "recordings" of someone saying something, we can no longer trust any of them. One way to deal with such is to ask, "what if this is false?" In business, we often need to make good decisions without much data. We make these decisions based on our own beliefs and values. It is important to have clear connection to values that build a better future.

Hiring and Retention

Elon Musk called for people to work 80 hours per week. Rarely is that the way to get the best people. The team he assembled is full of people without experience, not knowing where mistakes are commonly made, and are making mistakes that our enemies are exploiting. Hiring and retaining the right workers challenges many companies.

Boycotts

Captain Charles Boycott was the focus of a social shunning organized by the Irish National Land League. He acted as the land agent for Lord Erne in County Mayo, Ireland. In 1880, there was a bad harvest and Lord Erne started evicting tenants from the land for not paying their rent. The social shunning was so effective that Mr. Boycott could not get workers for his fields and the post refused to deliver mail. The news about this action spread quickly and soon, we had the word "boycott" in our language. What would happen if your customers suddenly went "on strike" against your company? The best defense is

Flooded by Risk

The recent floods in Texas and elsewhere and the recent meme about the concert couple remind us that risks eventually do happen. Eventually what we risk will happen. Being caught on the Jumbotron might be the smallest of consequences. There are two types of people who take on lots of risks, those who simply ignore or are ignorant of them, and those who constantly take on risks. A proper evaluation of risks helps survival.

Fear, Trust, and Success

Monte Python had a famous scene where three cardinals burst in proclaiming, "Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition." While we may laugh at it now, the fear created by the Inquisition caused economic issues. In Italy, the fear of the inquisition caused a number of scientists to leave the country and bringing economic growth from Italy to where they settled. Some claim that they can measure in places reduced business activity and less investment in people hundreds of years later because of that fear. A climate of fear is bad for business. Fear causes reduced innovation and taking of risks.

Ads Polluting AI

AI can't continue to be free for everyone. When the investment to make AI is running far more than $50 Billion per year, someone will eventually have to pay for that. AI will either become a subscription service or be paid for by ads. Most people assume that AI will remain neutral but it can't continue this way. AI companies might not be trustworthy partners. The economics of AI are starting to come home. Right now, almost nobody is paying for AI but the costs are rising. AI companies are going to face a tremendous pressure to make money.

Surveillance Downsides

Cameras, keystroke monitoring, eye movement monitoring, and more. When companies switched from the office to working from home, a number of companies added surveillance systems. These systems can increase productivity but only when the right choices are made. The problem is that such monitoring increased cheating and breaking of rules. Surveillance can make things worse, not better. The costs are now being acknowledged. Surveillance has a real downside.

AI Boom Hiding Real Problem

Albania recently announced that a government minister is being generated by AI. Business CEOs are believing that AI can replace junior people and many recent college graduates are having trouble finding jobs. People are believing the hype about Artificial Intelligence and overlooking the real problem. We need real solutions based on humanity and creativity. The more AI advances, the more human traits of creativity, integrity, empathy, and trust, become differentiators and the way that businesses will make money. As aways, those that don't follow the herd will find paths that the herd does not.

Resilience Under Stress

Floods, fire, and drought. Starting around 1450, Texas had a 37 year long exceptional drought that decimated the population. Disasters have happened time and time again. Faced with these disasters some communities folded, others rebuilt, and still others redesigned how they lived. Once thriving towns are now abandoned ghost towns. What makes for community resiliency? What makes an organization able to handle problems? What makes for bouncing forward through problems? In business, often the breaking comes from not just one little problem, but when problems cascade building one upon another.

What if what we know is wrong?

The most dangerous knowledge is that which we "know to be true" but are wrong. It is not true. We do well to question our assumptions. History has many examples of leaders "knowing" that they could beat another country only to be defeated in war. Many an inventor "knew" that they could succeed only to disappear into history. Question the assumptions and make plans for if I am wrong. The illusion of knowledge is most dangerous knowledge;

Cybercrime and Resiliency

Cybercrime is growing year after year. It is a big business and the major players in cybercrime operate as a business. They even have research groups, user manuals, and "franchises" for people who want to start up their own cybercrime business. AI has reduced the cost to commit cybercrime and is allowing many opportunistic attacks. Are you ready to be attacked? The costs of a cybercrime attack can be in the millions and many businesses have failed after such an attack.

What is your time line??

Warren Buffet is known for stating that he wants to own a stock forever. Yet, his company sells stock on a regular basis. Public companies are under pressure to perform quarter by quarter. Other companies have gone private to avoid the short-term thinking on Wall Street. Short-term thinking can seep through a company and cause all sorts of challenges. There can be pressure to cut corners, short change business ethics, and more. What is your time line?

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