Dallas doesn't have mountains to attract people, nor a shoreline, nor any other major attractions. People come to Dallas to shop.

Retail has been a big contributor to our national economy for the last 50 year. The result has been a major growth in retail outlets. Go north out of Dallas to the small town of Frisco. A few years back, the only retail in town was a few shops on Main Street near the grain elevator - typical for any small farming community. Today, due to a decade of growth, it has over four million square feet of retail space and plans for another million square feet are in the works.

Those kinds of numbers make people who sell and service credit card terminals very happy. Store growth and new retail centers provide more customers for those folks.

Yet, the American consumer is getting squeezed. The amount of debt carried by the consumer is at a very high level. Some say that the only reason it is so high is due to the lowest interest rates we have seen in 40 years. Those interest rates are going up. Oil prices are also squeezing the consumer. When the consumer is squeezed, so is retail.

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How many stores are too many? It happens when new stores can't make a profit. When will that happen? Look at the numbers. In 1980, there was only 13 square feet of retail space per person in this country. By 2000, that had grown to 20 square feet. Currently, Dallas has 26.3 square feet per person.

So, are new retail stores being built? Oh, yes. But old and not so old stores are starting to come down. The Prestonwood Town Center Mall was built in the 1980's and torn down just recently. There is a new term in retail: "Demalling" which means when a mall location is converted into something else. Malls which were once thriving are being turned into other uses or being completely torn down.

Will retail continue to grow? Sure. The population of the United States is still growing and people are moving around. Retail will continue to grow where people are moving to. However, the growth that we have enjoyed for the last twenty years is very likely to slow down. In means that stores will have to fight harder for their customers and those of us who have sold to retail stores will likely see a slowdown of growth. I expect that the highly creative minds that are in the business will continue to come up with new ways of making money.

Dave Randolph,
President, Prairie Trail Software
1-800-618-4199

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